Two great tips for examining managed funds
April 30, 2008 - 11:52am — JordanManaged funds, are mutual funds or exchanged traded funds that are managed by professionals.
On the whole, index funds are much cheaper (i.e. lower management fees) than professionally managed funds. However, managed funds can be utilised so make up a smaller component of your overall portfolio (This is called the 'Funny Money' section of my portfolio)
One interesting piece of research on managed funds was presented by John C. Bogle in “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” in the Financial Analyst Journal,
November/December 2005.
Two charts he presented in the article struck me as really insightful and offer some guidance in selecting a managed fund.
The more funds a company offers, the lower the returns
Funds from private companies perform better than Financial Conglomorates and Publically Traded companies
Suck down this data with a grain of salt. Correlation does not always imply causation.
This provides you with another two additional perspectives, in which you can use to analyze a managed fund and whether or not to invest. However, you will also need to do the standard due dilligence by reading the fund prospectus, background checking the fund manager, considering tax implications and many other factors.
Interesting stuff.
I can haz bailout? is hilarious
April 18, 2008 - 9:13am — JordanAnyone who is anyone on the internets knows about lolcats and icanhascheezburger.com.
But combining hilarous kitten speak with commentary on the credit crunch and financial markets? Now that is funny (and creative).

Laugh more at http://icanhazbailout.com/
Short Termism and the Struggle of the Long Term Investor
April 17, 2008 - 11:02pm — JordanWall Street has a tendency to overemphasize short-term benefits at the expense of long-term benefits . . . There is a reward given to pursue short-term actions that provide a short-term benefit at the expense of long-term value to your company.
- Doug Geoga, Hyatt Hotels
I am a long term investor, but I find myself living in a short-term world. The stock market feels more like my manic ex-girlfriend: Always moody, always demanding performance, and totally unpredictable (Oh, and she took my money away too).
A few years ago, I came across a timeless article published by Legg Mason Capital Management. Frankly, I don't know anything about them other than the fact that they write damn good thought leadership articles. I would like to share it with you.
The article, "How Psychology and Incentives Shape the Investment Industry", was published in May 2006 by Michael J. Mauboussin and does a great job of explaining exactly why the market is so similar to my ex-girlfriend in the short term.
Mauboussin introduces the concept of Short Termism, which he defines as 'a heavy focus on short-term results'. It is not hard to think of examples of Short Termism when looking at the Markets (e.g. Investors dumping or buying up shares on earnings announcements, Day Traders, etc). Mauboussin continues to describe the causes of Short Termism as a consequence of Incentives (i.e. CEO Pay is More Tied to the Stock Price than Ever Before), Psychology (i.e. Human stress and fear response), Information (i.e. Media and Wallstreet are paid to generate information), and Rate of Change (i.e. The apparent acceleration of the rate of change for businesses creates a final source of shorter time horizons).
Short Term Sucks
Why do we care? Short term thinking sucks for a number of reasons:
- Short term thinking results in more trading, which cost you more money and kills your portfolio returns. It is irrelevant that activity (i.e. trading) is cheaper than ever before.
- Short term predictions are based on limited data and are inherently more risky. We humans are natural patterns seekers, and "have a well-documented tendency to believe that a small series of numbers, or results, reflect the larger series." Psychologists have shown how this belief leads to suboptimal decisions (E.g. many investors buy high and sell low)
- For Executives of publically traded companies, decisions to make short-term targets at the expense of a business’s long-term competitive position can inflict irreversible damage. Companies "fixate more on short-term EPS, often to the detriment of long-term value, and some investment managers prioritize asset gathering over investment results"
There is Hope
But hold the phone kids. Mike Mauboussin is a glass half full kind of guy, and indicates that "Individuals who can, under the proper conditions, think and act with a long-term perspective stand to benefit from the short-term focus of others." However, he warns to not mix strategies by attempting to deliver superior long-term returns with strategies and behaviors rooted in short termism.
His big method for this is Time Arbitrage.
Scary name right? I know. But seriously, it is pretty simple stuff. Mauboussin uses the example of a coin toss to explain this. Check it: Mauboussin describes a coin toss where after 20 tosses, heads came up 35% of the time. That is the short term results. If you keep tossing the coin over and over, eventually you will get closer and closer to 50% chance of heads (or tails for that matter). Mauboussin's point is that the shorter the time horizon, the more 'noise' (volatility) you get which can deviate from the real long-term signal (Which is 50% in the case of the coin toss).
Time Arbitrage simply means that most investors (i.e. Bankers, individuals, and fund managers) tend to suffer from short termism, and therefore have high turnover or are trying to exploit very short-term anomalies in the stock market.
To summarize, Mauboussin is just stating that Time Arbitrage enables Value Investing (i.e. Buying good stocks at cheap prices).


